Compound (COMP) at Critical $46 Support Level
The Most Important Points at a Glance
Compound (COMP) is at a critical support level of $46. While the short-term trend suggests potential growth, the long-term outlook remains uncertain. On-chain data indicates ongoing accumulation, which could positively impact the price.
Technical Analysis: Symmetrical Triangle as a Signal?
On the 1-hour chart, Compound has formed a symmetrical triangle. According to crypto analyst Ali Martinez, a breakout from this pattern could lead to a price increase of up to 20%. However, the daily chart still shows a bearish structure, as no new high has been reached since mid-January.
On-Chain Data: Accumulation is Increasing
A look at Compound’s exchange reserves reveals a clear trend: Since 2024, holdings on exchanges have been continuously declining. This suggests that investors are withdrawing their COMP tokens from trading platforms and storing them in cold wallets – a sign of long-term confidence in the token.
Netflows: Shift from Selling to Buying Pressure
The 30-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) of exchange netflows shows that between September and November 2024, there were strong inflows of COMP into exchanges. This indicated increased selling pressure. However, since January 2025, this trend has reversed. The netflows are now negative, meaning more COMP is being withdrawn from exchanges than deposited.
Indicators Show Rising Buying Interest
Despite the bearish structure on the daily chart, there are positive signals. The A/D indicator (Accumulation/Distribution) has been rising for five weeks, indicating increased accumulation. Additionally, the CMF (Chaikin Money Flow) has surpassed the +0.05 mark, signaling significant capital inflows.
Our Assessment
The current market situation for Compound is mixed. While the short-term trend suggests a possible recovery, the long-term outlook remains uncertain. The declining exchange reserves and increasing capital inflows indicate accumulation, but a drop below the $46 mark could trigger a new wave of selling. Investors should closely monitor price movements and look for confirmation signals for a potential breakout.
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