Crypto Market Struggles: Institutions Gain Control
Key Takeaways
Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) did not experience the expected price rally in the first quarter of 2025. The decline in network activity and the drop in retail adoption indicate increasing institutional dominance. At the same time, macroeconomic factors such as U.S. trade policy are influencing market stability. The question remains: Will the second quarter bring a recovery, or will the downward trend continue?
Decline in Network Activity
The number of active Bitcoin and Ethereum addresses decreased in the first quarter of 2025. Particularly notable is the decline in wallets with a balance above $1 USD. This trend suggests that large institutional investors, such as MicroStrategy, are concentrating BTC in a few high-volume wallets, reducing distribution among retail investors.
Ethereum shows a similar pattern. On-chain data confirms the lowest retail adoption of the network in 2025. In the long run, this could mean that traditional metrics like active addresses and wallet growth lose their significance.
Institutional Capital Flows and Market Reactions
Institutional investors are increasingly influencing the liquidity cycles of Bitcoin and Ethereum. A notable example is the sharp BTC price drop to $77,000 USD in February, which coincided with net outflows of $1.4 billion USD from Bitcoin ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds).
Ethereum ETFs remain in a selling phase and are struggling to attract new capital inflows. This trend adds to the uncertainty surrounding ETH’s future price development.
Macroeconomic Influences
In addition to internal market mechanisms, external factors also play a role. U.S. government trade policies, particularly new tariffs, have increased volatility in financial markets. This uncertainty could impact cryptocurrencies, especially if institutional investors adjust their positions.
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Outlook for the Second Quarter
Within two weeks, Bitcoin once again reached the $88,000 USD mark after BTC ETFs recorded net inflows. MicroStrategy took advantage of this trend, acquiring 6,911 BTC for $584 million USD.
Ethereum briefly tested $2,000 USD but continues to show weak network activity and low institutional inflows. If Bitcoin faces resistance again and corrects, Ethereum could come under greater pressure.
Our Assessment
Market developments in the second quarter remain uncertain. While institutional investors continue to allocate capital to Bitcoin, Ethereum remains in a consolidation phase. Low retail participation and macroeconomic uncertainty could delay a sustainable recovery. The key question is whether new capital inflows can offset volatility or if the downward trend will persist.
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