Toncoin Drops 30% Amid Bearish On-Chain Signals
Key Takeaways
Toncoin (TON) came under renewed pressure following a brief upward trend. Within just a few days, the token lost over 30% of its value. On-chain data indicates a continued selling phase, particularly by large investors (so-called whales). Long-term holders appear to be increasingly reducing their positions. Current market data suggests that the downward trend is likely to continue.
Toncoin: From Rally to Correction
At the end of March, Toncoin showed initial signs of recovery. The price broke through local resistance at USD 3.95 and formed higher lows – a typical signal of a potential trend reversal. Some market observers anticipated a rise toward USD 4.80.
However, the picture changed in early April. Trading activity increased significantly, especially among large investors. These so-called whales began to liquidate their holdings. Within just eight days, TON lost approximately 26.6% of its value. In total, the price dropped by as much as 32% over five days.
On-Chain Data Indicates Selling Pressure
A key indicator of the current market situation is the so-called Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR). This figure shows whether coins are being sold at a profit or a loss. An SOPR below 1 means that investors are selling their TON tokens at a loss.
Toward the end of March, the SOPR briefly rose above 1 – a sign of profits. However, this increase was short-lived. The value fell below the threshold again, indicating a phase of loss-driven selling.
Another important indicator is the HODLer Net Position Change. This figure measures whether long-term holders are building or reducing their positions. In February and March, an accumulation phase was still evident. However, over the past ten days, the trend has reversed: net positions have declined – a sign of an emerging distribution phase, meaning increased selling by long-term investors.
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Technical Analysis: Bearish Signals Prevail
The technical market outlook has also deteriorated. The drop below the USD 3.50 mark was accompanied by a negative Chaikin Money Flow (CMF). Most recently, it stood at -0.14 – a clear signal of capital outflows and increased selling pressure.
The previously positive market structure was broken on March 27, when the price rose above the high of USD 3.95. However, this movement turned out to be a false signal. Since then, a bearish structure with lower highs and lower lows has taken hold.
Our Assessment
Toncoin is currently in a critical phase. The combination of increased activity by large investors, declining HODLer positions, and negative on-chain indicators points to a continued downtrend. Short-term recoveries are possible but are likely to be limited by selling pressure.
If you are invested in TON or planning to enter the market, you should closely monitor current market data. Pay particular attention to whale behaviour and the development of the SOPR. A sustainable trend reversal is not currently evident.
Sources
- Glassnode
- TradingView
| Symbol | TRX |
| Coin type | Alt Coin |
| Transaction Speed | High |
| Pros |
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| Cons |
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| Further practical applications | |
| Price | $0.24 |
| 24h % | -2.92 % |
| 7d % | -1.09 % |
| 30d % | 4.02 % |
| 60d % | 0.77 % |
| 1y % | 119.94 % |
| Market Cap | $22,837,706,255.00 |
| Official Links | Website | Source Code |
| Socials | Reddit | X |
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