Bitcoin Struggles at $85K Amid Cautious Sentiment
Key Takeaways
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently struggling with resistance around 85,000 USD. Short-term holders are increasingly selling at a loss, which may signal a potential price correction. Technical indicators such as CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta), open interest, and the Coinbase Premium are sending mixed signals. A sustained breakout above 85,000 USD could pave the way for higher price targets, while a drop below 84,000 USD could trigger a downward move toward 82,000 USD.
Selling Pressure from Short-Term BTC Holders
Recent on-chain data shows that short-term Bitcoin holders (holding duration of 1 week to 3 months) are increasingly selling—some at a loss. The so-called UTXO Realized Price Band, an indicator of the average purchase prices across various holding periods, is flashing a bearish signal: short-term groups are now below the 3- to 6-month cohort. Historically, this pattern suggests a potential correction, as losses often lead to further selling.
Technical Barriers at 85,000 USD
The Bitcoin price has recently bounced off the 200-day moving average (200MA) at around 87,740 USD multiple times. The area around 85,000 USD is also proving to be a stubborn resistance level. A sustained close above this mark could signal a trend reversal. However, the momentum to convincingly break through this area is currently lacking.
Coinbase Premium and Market Behaviour
The so-called Coinbase Premium—an indicator that measures the price difference between BTC on Coinbase and other exchanges—is slightly positive (+0.01%). This suggests increased buying interest from U.S. investors. Nevertheless, the price has remained below resistance. At the same time, high CVD values on Binance (307.34 million) and Bybit (40.65 million) indicate strong buying activity, which has so far failed to move the price.
Open Interest and Market Sentiment
Open interest—the total value of outstanding futures contracts—has dropped from 6.64 to 6.55 billion USD. This may indicate profit-taking or reduced risk appetite. Bitfinex also shows a bearish stance with over 71,000 BTC in short positions. Overall, sentiment remains cautious despite some positive individual indicators.
What Happens if the Price Falls?
If the Bitcoin price falls below 84,000 USD, it could trigger a downward move toward the 82,000 USD range. A negative Coinbase Premium would further support this scenario. Conversely, a rise above 85,500 USD and a breakout beyond the 90,000 mark could initiate a new upward trend.
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BTC Price Forecast: A Decision is Approaching
BTC is currently trading at around 84,700 USD. The price has been moving within a narrow range for weeks, constrained by descending trendlines and moving averages. A breakout above 85,000 USD followed by stabilization could enable mid-term prices above 90,000 USD. If this fails, the risk of a correction remains.
Our Assessment
The Bitcoin market is in a critical phase. While some indicators show buying interest, the price remains below key resistance levels. Short-term holders are increasingly selling at a loss, indicating a fragile market structure. For you as an investor, this means: closely monitor the 84,000 and 85,000 USD levels. Only a clear breakout above resistance could restore confidence. Until then, caution is advised.
Sources
- CryptoQuant
- Kiyotaka.ai
- TradingView
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