Macau Gaming Revenue Dips 5.6% YoY in January 2025
The Most Important Highlights
Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) for January 2025 amounted to just over MOP 18.25 billion (approximately USD 2.27 billion), marking a 5.6% decline compared to the previous year. However, there was a slight increase of 0.3% compared to December 2024. Despite high expectations due to the Lunar New Year holidays, the performance of major casino resorts fell short of predictions. While the mass market showed strong recovery, the VIP sector remains weak.
January 2025: Weak Start Despite Holiday Boom
Figures released by Macau’s gaming regulatory authority indicate that January 2025 was a mixed month for the casino industry as a whole. JP Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Ltd described the results as “muted.” Analysts pointed out that a significant drop in visitor numbers before the Lunar New Year holidays particularly affected the major casino resorts.
The first half of January showed encouraging numbers before visitor numbers dropped sharply just before the holidays began on January 29. The Lunar New Year holidays are traditionally one of the busiest times for Macau’s gaming and tourism sectors.
Mass Market Recovers, VIP Segment Lags Behind
According to JP Morgan, the mass market in January 2025 recovered to over 110% of pre-pandemic levels. The VIP segment, however, reached only about 20% of its previous revenue levels. These trends are consistent with the results from the fourth quarter of 2024.
As of January 31, the fourth day of the Lunar New Year holidays, visitor numbers began to rise again. Booking trends indicated strong demand, raising the question of whether the January decline was merely a temporary phenomenon or indicative of a longer-term trend.
Forecasts for February and the Year 2025
JP Morgan estimates that daily GGR revenues between February 1 and February 9, 2025, could range between MOP 800 million and MOP 850 million. During the holidays, revenues could even surpass the MOP 1 billion mark per day. For the entire month of February, a GGR of over MOP 19 billion is expected, representing an annual growth of 3% to 5%.
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For the year 2024, Macau reported a total GGR of MOP 226.78 billion, reflecting a 23.9% increase compared to 2023. For 2025, JP Morgan forecasts growth of over 5%, with the majority of gains expected in the second half of the year.
Our Assessment
Macau’s gaming industry shows a mixed performance. While the mass market demonstrates impressive recovery rates, the VIP sector remains a concern. Although the Lunar New Year holidays provided a short-term boost, the weak numbers before the holidays raise questions. Whether the January decline is a one-time occurrence or part of a longer-term trend remains to be seen. However, there are positive signals for 2025, particularly regarding the expected growth in the second half of the year.
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