Altcoins Show Signs of Rally as Bitcoin Dominance Dips
The Essentials at a Glance
The altcoin season remains elusive in 2025. However, one analyst sees signs of an impending rally. Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) and USDT dominance (USDT.D) have slightly weakened, which could indicate a potential capital shift towards altcoins.
Altcoin Season: Is the Market on the Verge of a Trend Reversal?
Guy Young, founder of Ethena (ENA), points out that over the past two years, there have only been two periods where funding rates were below risk-free interest rates – both times, a strong altcoin rally followed. Now, a third such phase has been recorded.
A chart shared by Young shows that the altcoin market (excluding Bitcoin and stablecoins) surged significantly after these signals in the past. The question remains whether this pattern will repeat itself.
Market Development: Capital Flowing into Altcoins?
In previous altcoin seasons, Bitcoin dominance dropped significantly while USDT dominance also declined. This suggests that investors withdrew capital from Bitcoin and invested in altcoins.
Since mid-March, USDT dominance has fallen from 6% to 5.1%, while Bitcoin dominance has decreased from 62.4% to 61%. For comparison, during the altcoin rally in November, Bitcoin dominance fell from 62% to 55%, while USDT dominance dropped from 6% to 4%.
Speculative Interest on the Rise
An increase in speculative interest is evident in the strong performance of individual altcoins. The meme coin Fartcoin saw a price surge of 180% over the past two weeks. Other altcoins such as BONK and SPX were also among the top performers in the last seven days.
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Additionally, altcoins like Hyperliquid (HYPE), Render (RNDR), and Berachain (BERA) recorded price gains between 24% and 30%.
Altcoin Season Not Yet Confirmed
Despite these developments, the Altcoin Season Index remains at 24, indicating a Bitcoin-dominated market phase. A true altcoin season may only be confirmed if Bitcoin and USDT dominance continue to decline.
Our Assessment
Current market movements indicate growing interest in altcoins. However, the declines in Bitcoin and USDT dominance so far have not been significant enough to confirm a broad altcoin rally. Investors should closely monitor market developments, particularly regarding capital flows and macroeconomic factors.
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