Bitcoin Faces Long Bear Phase, Recovery Unlikely Soon
The Most Important Points at a Glance
Bitcoin could be facing a prolonged bear phase. According to Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, on-chain data suggests the bull market has come to an end. He expects a sideways or downward movement for the next six to twelve months. Particularly concerning is the decline in liquidity as large investors sell off their holdings.
Ki Young Ju’s Assessment of the Current Market Situation
Ki Young Ju, who was previously optimistic about Bitcoin, has changed his stance. In a post on X (formerly Twitter), he stated that the bull market is over. His analysis is based on various on-chain indicators that signal a trend reversal.
He is particularly worried about the decline in liquidity inflows. New large investors, known as whales, are selling their Bitcoin holdings at lower prices. This could indicate a prolonged period of market weakness.
Technical Indicators Support the Forecast
Ju used various analytical methods to support his assessment. A key tool is Principal Component Analysis (PCA), which he applied to multiple indicators such as MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value), SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio), and NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss).
These indicators suggest that Bitcoin may enter a phase of consolidation or a downtrend. The BTC Profit and Loss (PnL) Index also indicates that a quick recovery is unlikely.
Institutional Demand is Declining
Another warning sign is the decline in institutional demand. Bitcoin ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) have recorded negative capital flows for three consecutive weeks. This suggests that large investors are not currently building new positions.
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If institutional buyers remain absent, selling pressure could continue to increase, putting additional strain on Bitcoin’s price.
Historical Patterns Offer Hope
Despite current concerns, there are also optimistic voices. Historical price trends show that Bitcoin often experiences seasonal growth phases. Particularly between April and October, BTC has recorded strong price gains in the past.
Some analysts believe that Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high by mid-2025. If this pattern repeats, the current weakness could be just a temporary correction.
Our Assessment
The current market situation remains uncertain. While on-chain data points to a prolonged period of weakness, historical patterns suggest a potential recovery. The key factor will be whether liquidity returns and institutional investors re-enter the market.
For investors, this means caution is advised. Those with a long-term strategy should closely monitor market developments and avoid making hasty decisions.
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