Bitcoin dominance nears peak, altcoin season by 2025?
- Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) is approaching a potential cycle high.
- A decline in Bitcoin dominance could signal the start of an altcoin season.
- Experts expect an altcoin season no earlier than 2025.
- Technical indicators suggest a potential trend reversal that could favour altcoins.
What is Bitcoin Dominance?
Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) measures Bitcoin’s share of the total cryptocurrency market. It indicates how much capital is invested in Bitcoin compared to other cryptocurrencies. When Bitcoin dominance rises, it usually means more capital is flowing into Bitcoin and less into altcoins (alternative cryptocurrencies). A decline in BTC.D, on the other hand, could indicate an upcoming altcoin season, during which altcoins outperform Bitcoin.
Current Development of Bitcoin Dominance
Since September 2024, Bitcoin dominance has shown a clear upward trend. On October 29, 2024, Bitcoin’s price nearly reached its all-time high of USD 73,600 before encountering resistance. At the same time, BTC.D rose to 60.5% and could continue moving towards 72%—the peak of the last cycle.
What Does This Mean for Altcoins?
High Bitcoin dominance suggests that Bitcoin is currently the preferred choice for investors. Altcoins, such as Ethereum (ETH) and other smaller cryptocurrencies, are struggling to keep pace with Bitcoin’s performance. The Altcoin Season Index, which measures the relative strength of altcoins compared to Bitcoin, currently stands at 27. This indicates that altcoins are currently lagging behind Bitcoin.
When Will the Altcoin Season Begin?
According to Benjamin Cowen, CEO of “Into The Cryptoverse”, an altcoin season may not begin until 2025. Cowen notes that the combined dominance of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the stablecoins USDT and USDC has historically peaked at around 82%. Currently, it stands at approximately 80.5%. A decline in this dominance could signal that investors are starting to shift capital into altcoins.
Technical Analysis: A Look at Bitcoin Dominance
The technical analysis of Bitcoin dominance shows that a breakout above the resistance of the previous cycle has already occurred. If BTC.D continues to rise, it could reach the 72% mark. However, it is not strictly necessary for dominance to reach this level before an altcoin season begins. A break in the current upward structure could already be an early signal for the start of an altcoin rally.
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What Should Investors Do Now?
For investors, it may be wise to prepare for a potential altcoin season. In phases where Bitcoin dominates, it is advisable to accumulate altcoins that one believes in for the long term. Once Bitcoin dominance peaks and begins to decline, altcoins could gain value disproportionately.
Our Assessment
Bitcoin dominance is currently in an upward trend, indicating strong performance for Bitcoin. However, an altcoin season does not seem imminent. Investors should closely monitor BTC.D developments, as a decline in dominance could be an early sign of capital rotation into altcoins. Patience is key, as experts predict an altcoin season will not occur until 2025. Those who invest in altcoins for the long term could benefit from such a market phase.
| Symbol | BTC |
| Coin type | Alt Coin |
| Transaction Speed | Slow |
| Pros |
|
| Cons |
|
| Price | $75,178.00 |
| 24h % | 1.05 % |
| 7d % | 3.67 % |
| 30d % | 19.87 % |
| 60d % | 38.28 % |
| 1y % | 115.81 % |
| Market Cap | $1,488,304,177,504.00 |
| Max. Supply | 21,000,000.00 |
| Official Links | Website | Whitepaper | Source Code |
| Socials | Reddit | X | Message Board |
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