Bitcoin Price Surge Post-2024 Halving: Debate Rages Amid Mixed Predictions
In Brief
The world of cryptocurrencies is always in motion, and one of the most discussed questions currently is whether Bitcoin (BTC) will experience a significant price rally after the halving event in 2024. Historically, significant price increases have followed halving events, but the current market situation raises questions. While some experts and analysts predict an imminent parabolic rally, others remain sceptical about the sustainability of recent price gains.
A Look at the Past and Present
After the halving in April 2024, BTC initially recorded a decline of 11%, but recovered slightly by 6% in the third quarter. Despite this recovery, the expected parabolic increase, as observed in past cycles, has not yet occurred. For comparison: After the 2020 halving, BTC rose by an impressive 630%, and in the years 2016 and 2012, it was even 1,400% and 5,500% respectively. These historical data raise the question of whether and when a similar development can be expected for 2024.
Analyst Opinions and Market Dynamics
Charles Edwards, founder of crypto hedge fund Capriole Investments, believes that the current cycle has not yet begun. Analysts from Coinbase and JPMorgan, on the other hand, express concerns about the sustainability of recent price increases above 67,000 USD. At the same time, the increased demand for US spot BTC ETFs and the increase in Bitcoin whales indicate heightened interest in the market, which could suggest a possible price increase.
The Role of Bitcoin Whales and ETFs
The first three weeks of July saw a remarkable accumulation of over 41,000 BTC by spot BTC ETFs, led by BlackRock, raising the annual net inflows to over 17 billion USD. This development, combined with the decline in short positions at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), could be another indication of an impending rally.
Our Assessment
The question of whether Bitcoin will experience a post-halving rally remains open and depends on numerous factors. While the historical data and the current accumulation of BTC by whales and ETFs are positive indicators, caution is advised. The crypto markets are highly volatile and influenced by external events. Investors should therefore base their decisions on comprehensive analyses and careful market observation.
Sources: Benjamin Njiri, Charles Edwards, Capriole Investments, HOLD15 Capital, Stockmoney Lizards
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| Symbol | BTC |
| Coin type | Alt Coin |
| Transaction Speed | Slow |
| Pros |
|
| Cons |
|
| Price | $72,395.00 |
| 24h % | 1.84 % |
| 7d % | 7.98 % |
| 30d % | 12.18 % |
| 60d % | 22.30 % |
| 1y % | 111.34 % |
| Market Cap | $1,431,884,741,399.00 |
| Max. Supply | 21,000,000.00 |
| Official Links | Website | Whitepaper | Source Code |
| Socials | Reddit | X | Message Board |
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