Bitcoin Volatility Rises Amid Correction Signals
The Most Important Points at a Glance
Bitcoin continues to show strong price fluctuations. An analyst from CryptoQuant identifies four indicators that suggest a possible end to the bull market. At the same time, there are signs that large investors remain optimistic. Market developments remain uncertain as macroeconomic factors play a role.
Four Indicators Point to a Possible Correction
According to CryptoQuant, there are four on-chain metrics that indicate a potential market peak:
1. Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP)
This indicator measures Bitcoin movements between exchanges. Currently, the value is at 696,000 BTC, below the 90-day average of 794,000 BTC. As long as the IFP value remains below the average, further price corrections are likely.
2. CQ Bull & Bear Market Cycle Indicator
This indicator shows whether Bitcoin is in a bull or bear market. The 30-day moving average (DMA30) is currently at -0.16, while the 365-day moving average (DMA365) is at 0.18. As long as DMA30 remains below DMA365, this suggests a continued downward movement.
3. MVRV Score
The MVRV Score shows the ratio between Bitcoin’s market value and realized value. Currently, this indicator is below its 365-day moving average (SMA365), indicating increased selling pressure. A similar situation occurred during the carry-trade crisis in August 2024.
4. Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL)
This indicator measures whether investors are in profit or loss. The current value is 0.49, while the SMA365 is at 0.53. As long as NUPL remains below this average, the market could remain under pressure.
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Macroeconomic Factors Influence Bitcoin
In addition to on-chain data, external factors also play a role. U.S. trade policy and economic uncertainties are putting pressure on Bitcoin. Similar developments were observed in 2024 when Bitcoin rebounded after a period of economic uncertainty.
Large Investors Remain Optimistic
Despite the mentioned indicators, there are signs of continued bullish sentiment among major market participants:
1. Decline in Whale Exchange Ratio
This indicator shows how many Bitcoins are transferred to exchanges by large investors. A decline suggests that whales are holding their assets rather than selling them.
2. Negative Exchange Netflow
Over the past five days, the net flow of Bitcoin on exchanges has been negative. This means that more BTC has been withdrawn from exchanges than deposited – a sign of continued accumulation.
3. Decreasing Bitcoin Reserves on Exchanges
Bitcoin holdings on trading platforms have fallen to a yearly low. Fewer Bitcoins on exchanges often mean less selling pressure, which could support positive price development.
Our Assessment
Current market indicators show mixed signals. While some on-chain data suggest a possible correction, sentiment among large investors remains positive. The key factor will be how macroeconomic conditions develop. If the environment stabilizes, Bitcoin could rise again. Otherwise, short-term setbacks are possible.
| Symbol | BTC |
| Coin type | Alt Coin |
| Transaction Speed | Slow |
| Pros |
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| Cons |
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| Further practical applications | |
| Price | $88,400.00 |
| 24h % | -0.09 % |
| 7d % | 7.54 % |
| 30d % | -7.68 % |
| 60d % | -16.43 % |
| 1y % | 24.49 % |
| Market Cap | $1,756,469,930,549.00 |
| Max. Supply | 21,000,000.00 |
| Official Links | Website | Whitepaper | Source Code |
| Socials | Reddit | X | Message Board |
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