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Bitcoin Market Shows Mixed Signals Amid Uncertainty

Bitcoin Market Shows Mixed Signals Amid Uncertainty

Abby Richards • April 2, 2025

Key Takeaways

The average Bitcoin funding rate is negative across four major exchanges.
Historically, similar situations have often been followed by price increases.
Sell activity from large investors (“whales”) and experienced traders is declining.
Long-term holders are accumulating BTC again.
Macroeconomic uncertainty is currently limiting price potential.

What Does a Negative Funding Rate Mean?

The funding rate is a mechanism in futures markets that ensures a balance between long and short positions. When it’s negative, short positions pay a fee to long positions. This indicates that more traders are betting on falling prices.

Currently, the average funding rate on Binance, Bybit, OKX, and Deribit is in negative territory. In the past, similar conditions led to Bitcoin price increases in three out of four cases. Only once did it result in a decline.

Decline in Sell Activity

Another positive indicator: selling pressure on the spot market is decreasing. According to data from Checkonchain, daily sell volume fell from USD 6.2 billion (as of March 5) to USD 2.4 billion (April 1) — a drop of USD 3.8 billion in one month.

So-called whales — large investors with significant Bitcoin holdings — are also sending less BTC to exchanges. According to IntoTheBlock, the whale-to-exchange ratio dropped from 1.76% to 0.15%. Lower inflows to exchanges suggest fewer intentions to sell.

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Long-Term Holders Remain Invested

According to Glassnode, investors who entered the market between 2020 and 2022 are still holding their positions. While the share of assets held by this group has declined by about 3% since November 2024, it remains at a historically high level. At the same time, activity among this group is increasing again — a sign of renewed accumulation.

Macroeconomy as a Risk Factor

Despite positive on-chain data, one major limiting factor remains: the overall economic environment. Weak macroeconomic indicators are currently preventing a sustainable uptrend. A new upward trend could emerge only if there are signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve or the U.S. government — such as new capital inflows through exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

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What’s Next for Bitcoin?

Market sentiment is currently mostly optimistic. Many investors are in the so-called “belief phase,” in which they expect a recovery despite uncertainties. If the macroeconomic environment stabilizes, Bitcoin could aim for the resistance level at USD 86,701. A breakout above that level could lead to a rise above USD 87,000.

However, if the only negative historical exception repeats itself, the price could drop to around USD 81,155.

Our Assessment

The current market situation is showing mixed signals. Technical indicators and on-chain data suggest a possible stabilization or even an upswing. The declining sell activity and the return of long-term investors are particularly positive signs.

However, the broader economic outlook remains a risk factor. Anyone investing in Bitcoin should therefore monitor not only the price trend but also macroeconomic developments. Short-term fluctuations are to be expected, but medium-term recovery opportunities exist — provided external factors are favourable.

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Profile Bitcoin
Symbol	BTC
Coin type	Alt Coin
Transaction Speed	Slow
Pros	First cryptocurrency, therefore very widespread Largest selection of casinos among the coins Many BTC based bonus offers
Cons	Fairly low transaction speed
Further practical applications
Price	$83,621.00
24h %	-1.73 %
7d %	-4.40 %
30d %	-0.26 %
60d %	-16.21 %
1y %	25.67 %
Market Cap	$1,661,461,272,230.00
Max. Supply	21,000,000.00
Official Links	Website \| Whitepaper \| Source Code
Socials	Reddit \| X \| Message Board