Bitcoin poised for rally after September decline
- Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a downward movement in September but remains close to key resistance levels.
- Technical indicators suggest a possible rally in October if the price rises above the 50-day line.
- An increased supply of Bitcoin on exchanges could indicate an upcoming price movement.
Bitcoin After a Weak September: What Does October Hold?
Bitcoin (BTC) showed weak performance in September, which historically is not uncommon. Despite the declines, the price remains near a key psychological resistance level, sparking hope for a positive development in October. We take a look at the current market data and analyze what can be expected in the coming month.
Review: Bitcoin Experiences Consecutive Declines
In the last days of September, Bitcoin saw several consecutive price drops. At the time of writing, the BTC price was around USD 58,650. This downward movement began on September 14, after Bitcoin briefly rose above the USD 60,000 mark. This short-term rally had pushed the price up by over 4% and raised the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to around 50 – a sign of a possible upward trend. However, the RSI has since returned to a neutral level, indicating a weakening of the bullish trend.
Technical Analysis: Is an October Rally on the Horizon?
Looking ahead to October, Bitcoin remains near key technical levels. The 50-day line is at approximately USD 59,495, while the 200-day line is around USD 63,997. The BTC price is currently near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at USD 58,104, indicating possible resistance. On the downside, there is significant support at USD 55,000, based on Fibonacci extensions.
If Bitcoin breaks through the 50-day line at around USD 59,500 and maintains momentum, the price could reach the 200-day line at around USD 64,000. Positive signals from the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) and the neutral RSI suggest that an upward movement in October is possible, especially if the bulls take control. A rise into the USD 63,000 range could trigger FOMO (Fear of Missing Out), pushing the price even higher.
Supply on Exchanges: An Indicator of Upcoming Movements?
Data from Santiment shows a slight increase in the supply of Bitcoin on exchanges. Despite this increase, trading volume remained relatively stable. At the time of writing, around 1.8 million BTC were on exchanges. This increase could indicate that traders are preparing for a potential price movement. In the past, an increased supply on exchanges has often signaled impending sales or larger market movements.
Our Assessment
After a weak September, Bitcoin is entering a critical phase. Technical indicators point to a possible recovery in October, particularly if the price breaks through the 50-day line. At the same time, the increased supply on exchanges could be a sign that traders are preparing for larger price movements. Investors should closely monitor technical levels and market volume to avoid missing potential entry points for a rally.
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