Bitcoin may hit $120K as indicators signal trend shift
The Most Important Points in Brief
- Bitcoin could reach a price of 120,000 USD in the coming months.
- The MVRV indicator suggests a possible price increase.
- The Pi Cycle Top indicator shows that Bitcoin is approaching a market low.
- A breakout above the current resistance could trigger a new upward movement.
Bitcoin on the Way to 120,000 USD?
Bitcoin (BTC) has shown a downward trend in recent weeks. The price dropped by 3% and was at 68,400 USD at the time of analysis. Despite the ongoing downward trend, there are signs of a possible trend reversal. An analysis by CryptoQuant suggests that a significant price increase could be imminent.
The MVRV Indicator as a Guide
The MVRV indicator (Market Value to Realized Value) measures the ratio between the current market value and the realized value of Bitcoin. According to an analysis by CryptoQuant, the MVRV is currently around 2. This means that the market value is twice as high as the estimated value on the blockchain. In the past, an MVRV value between 3 and 3.6 indicated the peak of a cycle.
To bring Bitcoin to a level of 95,000 to 120,000 USD, an increase of 43% to 77% would be required, assuming the realized value remains constant. This could happen in the coming months if the current trend continues.
The Pi Cycle Top Indicator and Its Significance
In addition to the MVRV indicator, the Pi Cycle Top indicator shows that Bitcoin is approaching a potential market low. According to data from Glassnode, the current low point could be around 62,700 USD, while the potential peak is positioned at 116,000 USD. These indicators suggest that it is not unrealistic for Bitcoin to reach the 120,000 USD mark in the next few months.
What Happens to Bitcoin in the Short Term?
Despite the positive long-term outlook, the short-term development of Bitcoin remains uncertain. An analysis of on-chain data shows that the Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) indicator is red. This means that long-term holders have been less active in the last seven days and continue to hold their coins. This could indicate that they are speculating on higher prices.
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The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator also suggests a phase in which investors are holding high unrealized profits. This could lead to further consolidation before a breakout occurs.
Technical Analysis: Resistance at the 20-Day SMA
A look at the daily Bitcoin chart shows that the price is currently testing the resistance at the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). If a successful breakout occurs, it could initiate a new upward movement. Otherwise, the price could fall back to 65,000 USD.
Our Assessment
The data suggests that Bitcoin could reach a price target of 120,000 USD in the coming months, especially if current indicators like MVRV and Pi Cycle Top are correct. In the short term, however, the situation remains volatile, and it is possible that the price will continue to consolidate first. Long-term investors, however, seem optimistic and are holding their positions.
| Symbol | BTC |
| Coin type | Alt Coin |
| Transaction Speed | Slow |
| Pros |
|
| Cons |
|
| Price | $90,079.00 |
| 24h % | 2.96 % |
| 7d % | 19.90 % |
| 30d % | 37.08 % |
| 60d % | 49.58 % |
| 1y % | 147.31 % |
| Market Cap | $1,780,632,287,579.00 |
| Max. Supply | 21,000,000.00 |
| Official Links | Website | Whitepaper | Source Code |
| Socials | Reddit | X | Message Board |
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