Bitcoin’s 1-Year Momentum Nears Negative Zone
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin’s 1-year rate of change is approaching negative territory.
- Three of the last four negative phases led to price declines.
- However, 2020 showed that a period of consolidation is also possible.
- Analysts are divided: is a new downtrend looming or is a rebound ahead?
What Does the 1-Year Rate of Change Mean?
The 1-year rate of change shows how Bitcoin’s price has changed over a twelve-month period. If the current price is below the level from one year ago, the figure turns negative. This is often interpreted as a sign of weakening buying interest or increasing selling pressure.
In the past, this has often been a precursor to declining prices. Three of the last four negative phases led to prolonged downtrends. An exception was 2020, when the negative rate triggered a sideways movement—followed by a strong rally.
Historical Comparisons: What Can We Learn from Past Data?
Looking back, there are four notable periods when the 1-year rate of change fell below zero:
- 2015: Short-term decline during the recovery from the 2014 bear market.
- 2018–2019: Longest negative phase following the crash from $20,000 to around $3,200.
- 2020: Brief negative phase during the COVID-19 crisis—followed by a strong upward trend.
- 2022: After the decline from $69,000 to below $20,000.
Currently (as of March 2025), the rate of change is once again approaching the zero mark. Whether it will turn negative this time remains to be seen.
Consolidation or New Downtrend?
Analysts are split. Some see similarities to 2020: back then, the negative rate was followed by a consolidation period and then a rally. Bitcoin’s price is currently holding steady, despite the looming negative figure.
Other experts are warning: if the rate of change drops below zero, it could signal the end of the current rally. This could lead to further losses, especially if external factors like economic uncertainty or regulatory pressure come into play.
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What Are the Risks?
A sustained negative trend in the 1-year rate of change can indicate a loss of market confidence. This could trigger a “risk-off” reaction—where investors pull out of high-risk assets like Bitcoin.
As a result, key support levels may be tested and potentially broken. This could lead to panic selling and a deeper bear market.
Our Assessment
You should keep a close eye on the 1-year rate of change. It’s a useful indicator of market sentiment—but not the only one. Historical data shows that a negative figure doesn’t necessarily mean a crash. It’s more about how it interacts with other factors.
At the moment, there are no clear signals. The current situation is reminiscent of 2020, which could suggest a consolidation phase. At the same time, the risk of a downtrend hasn’t been ruled out. If you’re invested in Bitcoin or considering investing, pay attention to price movements and market indicators in the coming weeks—and avoid making hasty decisions.
| Symbol | BTC |
| Coin type | Alt Coin |
| Transaction Speed | Slow |
| Pros |
|
| Cons |
|
| Further practical applications | |
| Price | $83,525.00 |
| 24h % | 2.11 % |
| 7d % | -3.57 % |
| 30d % | -3.16 % |
| 60d % | -20.08 % |
| 1y % | 19.86 % |
| Market Cap | $1,657,875,797,337.00 |
| Max. Supply | 21,000,000.00 |
| Official Links | Website | Whitepaper | Source Code |
| Socials | Reddit | X | Message Board |
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