Bitcoin Faces Pressure Amid Inflation, Uncertainty
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin (BTC) briefly dropped below $84,000 USD following a rise in U.S. inflation data.
- Coinbase expects sideways movement between $78,000 and $88,000 USD until early April.
- Analysts warn of seasonally weak months in the second quarter.
- Short-term BTC investors are seeing significant losses – increasing the risk of market capitulation.
- Technically, the 50-week EMA remains a key support level.
Bitcoin Under Pressure: Inflation and Politics Fuel Uncertainty
Bitcoin came under pressure at the end of March after U.S. inflation data (PCE index) came in higher than expected. The price briefly dipped below the $84,000 USD mark. At the same time, the Nasdaq index lost around 2%, while gold, as a safe haven, reached a new high. This development points to growing investor risk aversion – especially in the lead-up to new import tariffs announced by U.S. President Trump.
Coinbase Forecast: Sideways Movement Until Early April
According to analysts at Coinbase, the Bitcoin price is likely to trade in a range between $78,000 and $88,000 USD until at least April 2. That date marks the deadline for the new Trump tariffs – a potential turning point for the markets. The analysts recommend reducing crypto exposure during this period. Historically, the second quarter (April to June) has been one of the weaker periods for cryptocurrencies.
Short-Term Holders Underwater: Capitulation Risk on the Rise
Blockchain data shows that short-term investors – those holding Bitcoin for less than six months – are increasingly in the red. According to data from Glassnode, this group is holding approximately 3.4 million BTC at a loss – the highest level since July 2018. This trend increases the risk of a so-called “capitulation event,” where many investors sell at once.
Options Markets Signal Further Downside Risk
Caution is also evident in the derivatives market. The 25-Delta Risk Reversal indicator from Amberdata – a measure of the ratio between call and put options – was negative for options expiring on April 4 and April 11 (-7.41 and -6.0 respectively). This suggests increased hedging strategies and rising demand for put options. In short: many market participants are expecting further price declines in the near term.
Technical Outlook: 50-Week EMA as a Key Level
Despite short-term weakness, Bitcoin’s long-term structure remains intact – as long as the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (50-EMA) holds. This line has served as dynamic support during previous bull markets. However, if BTC falls sustainably below this level, the trend could reverse – a warning sign for those betting on rising prices.
Our Assessment
As the second quarter begins, Bitcoin faces several challenges: macroeconomic uncertainty, political risks, and seasonal weakness. The current sideways trend may continue into early April. New investors in particular are under pressure, increasing the risk of a sell-off. Those invested should keep a close eye on the 50-week EMA – it could determine the direction for the coming weeks. Defensive strategies and cautious use of leverage are advisable in this phase.
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| Symbol | BTC |
| Coin type | Alt Coin |
| Transaction Speed | Slow |
| Pros |
|
| Cons |
|
| Further practical applications | |
| Price | $86,925.00 |
| 24h % | 3.16 % |
| 7d % | 2.14 % |
| 30d % | 3.22 % |
| 60d % | -10.79 % |
| 1y % | 33.65 % |
| Market Cap | $1,726,392,184,420.00 |
| Max. Supply | 21,000,000.00 |
| Official Links | Website | Whitepaper | Source Code |
| Socials | Reddit | X | Message Board |
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