Bitcoin Gains as U.S.-China Tensions Shake Markets
Key Points at a Glance
Trade tensions between the United States and China are intensifying once again. China has responded with a 34 percent punitive tariff on U.S. imports. This development is impacting not only traditional financial markets but also the crypto market. Bitcoin (BTC) is emerging as a potential safe haven during this period. Analysts view BTC as an alternative to traditional assets, especially amid growing uncertainty and the possibility of interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Background: U.S.-China Trade War Escalates
On April 2, the U.S. government under President Donald Trump announced new tariffs on Chinese products. Just a few days later, China responded with a countermeasure: starting April 10, a 34% import tariff will apply to all U.S. goods. This escalation is increasing tensions in global markets. The European Union is also signaling possible countermeasures.
Bitcoin Under Pressure – But with Potential
After briefly rising to USD 84,000, the price of Bitcoin dropped below USD 82,000 following China’s announcement. Nevertheless, analysts see BTC as a potential hedge against geopolitical risks. Eric Weiss, a well-known market observer, emphasizes: “When stocks come under pressure, Bitcoin becomes visible as an alternative. No corporate risks, no politics – just math.”
U.S. Dollar Losing Strength
The Dollar Index (DXY), a benchmark for the strength of the U.S. dollar against other currencies, fell by 2%. This points to declining investor confidence in the U.S. market. China is demanding the removal of U.S. tariffs and is announcing further countermeasures.
Recession Fears Rising – Prediction Markets React
On platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, the likelihood of a U.S. recession in 2025 is rising significantly. Kalshi reports an increase to 61%, while Polymarket stands at 57%. At the beginning of the year, these figures were around 20%. Markets are increasingly expecting an economic slowdown.
Bitcoin as a Crisis Currency? Opportunities and Risks
Some analysts see a certain degree of stability in the crypto market compared to traditional equities. While companies in the S&P 500 are directly affected by trade tariffs, Bitcoin is less dependent on specific economic sectors. There is also hope for monetary policy support: futures markets are currently pricing in up to five interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed).
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However, this hope is not guaranteed. If Fed Chair Jerome Powell rules out a rate cut, the crypto market could also come under pressure. Currently, Bitcoin’s price is supported by strong U.S. labour market data. The next key drivers are likely to be inflation numbers (CPI) and Powell’s statements on monetary policy.
Our Assessment
Geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties are increasing the appeal of Bitcoin as an alternative investment. While BTC remains vulnerable to short-term fluctuations, it could benefit in an environment of looming recession and potential interest rate cuts. However, those investing in cryptocurrencies should closely monitor developments in monetary policy – particularly decisions by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
| Symbol | BTC |
| Coin type | Alt Coin |
| Transaction Speed | Slow |
| Pros |
|
| Cons |
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| Further practical applications | |
| Price | $82,660.00 |
| 24h % | -0.70 % |
| 7d % | -0.49 % |
| 30d % | -7.02 % |
| 60d % | -15.82 % |
| 1y % | 22.12 % |
| Market Cap | $1,640,802,497,211.00 |
| Max. Supply | 21,000,000.00 |
| Official Links | Website | Whitepaper | Source Code |
| Socials | Reddit | X | Message Board |
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