Bitcoin Nears Reversal Amid Signs of Capitulation
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin is approaching a potential rally zone.
- Key on-chain indicators suggest a possible trend reversal.
- However, low market activity could act as a short-term drag.
Bitcoin Reaches Critical Support Zone
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently showing signs of a potential recovery. The cryptocurrency is moving within a zone that has historically served as a springboard for price increases. Although the price dropped by 0.84% over the past 24 hours, several metrics point to an upcoming upward movement.
Sell-Side Ratio Supports Bullish Scenario
A key indicator is the so-called Sell-Side Ratio. It measures the ratio between the volume of Bitcoin spent and the realized market capitalization. Historically, a value below 0.1% often signals the beginning of an upward trend. Currently, the Sell-Side Ratio stands at 0.086%. This suggests that many investors are holding onto their coins rather than selling — a typical sign of an impending rally.
Losses on Sales: aSOPR Below 1
Another signal comes from the aSOPR (Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio). This indicator shows whether coins are being moved at a profit or a loss. A value below 1 means that coins are being sold at a loss. The current value is 0.99. This could indicate capitulation — a state that often precedes a trend reversal. Long-term investors appear willing to realize losses, which creates entry opportunities for new buyers.
MVRV Momentum as a Possible Trigger
The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) Momentum indicator on a 70-day basis is used to identify favourable buying opportunities. When this indicator breaks above its 70-day moving average, a sustained price increase often follows. While this breakthrough has not yet occurred, the gap is narrowing. If it does happen, new highs could be within reach.
Market Activity Remains Subdued
Despite the positive signals, activity on the Bitcoin network remains low. Daily transfer volume is currently around 441,000 BTC — a significant drop compared to previous periods of high volatility. For a sustainable rally, both trading volume and price need to rise. If either factor is missing, the movement remains vulnerable to pullbacks.
Our Assessment
Technical and on-chain data provide clear signs of a possible trend reversal for Bitcoin. In particular, the low Sell-Side Ratio and aSOPR value below 1 point to a potential recovery. However, low market activity should not be overlooked. Without increasing volume, upside potential remains limited. Keep a close eye on the development of MVRV Momentum — it could be the key trigger for the next move.
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Sources
- Glassnode
- Cryptoquant
- CoinMarketCap
| Symbol | BTC |
| Coin type | Alt Coin |
| Transaction Speed | Slow |
| Pros |
|
| Cons |
|
| Further practical applications | |
| Price | $85,232.00 |
| 24h % | 2.08 % |
| 7d % | -3.26 % |
| 30d % | 0.18 % |
| 60d % | -18.42 % |
| 1y % | 24.22 % |
| Market Cap | $1,691,549,144,438.00 |
| Max. Supply | 21,000,000.00 |
| Official Links | Website | Whitepaper | Source Code |
| Socials | Reddit | X | Message Board |
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