Bitcoin Volatility Hits Lows, Signaling Major Move Ahead
The Most Important Points at a Glance
Bitcoin is currently experiencing one of the lowest realized volatilities in recent years. The one-week volatility stands at 23.42%, a level that has rarely been reached in the past four years. Historically, such phases have often been followed by strong price movements.
Bitcoin Volatility at a Historic Low
Bitcoin’s realized volatility measures actual price fluctuations over a specific period. Currently, this value is at one of its lowest levels in years. A similar level has only been recorded a few times, most recently in October 2024 (22.88%) and November 2023 (21.35%).
Such periods of low volatility are often precursors to larger market movements. In the past, similar situations have been followed by strong price increases, especially when Bitcoin was near key technical support or resistance zones.
Market Structure and Technical Indicators
At the time of analysis, Bitcoin was trading at $96,450. The price action shows that BTC is struggling to stay above the 50-day moving average ($98,186) but remains above the 200-day moving average ($97,764).
Another important signal comes from the Bollinger Band analysis. The bands are tightening, which typically indicates an impending significant price movement. The Choppiness Index, which measures whether the market is trending or moving sideways, stands at 48.53. This suggests that Bitcoin is nearing the end of its consolidation phase.
What Scenarios Are Possible?
With the current volatility situation, Bitcoin could be on the verge of a decisive movement. If BTC holds the support zone between $96,000 and $97,000, a breakout above $98,500 could unlock further upward potential.
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On the other hand, a downward breakout could lead Bitcoin to retest the support zone at $94,000 before a recovery sets in. Investors should watch for an expansion in volatility, especially an increase in the Bollinger Bands and rising trading volume. These factors could confirm the direction of the next major movement.
Our Assessment
The extremely low realized volatility suggests that the market is preparing for a significant price movement. Historically, similar phases have often been followed by strong price swings. Whether this results in an uptrend or a correction this time depends on the market’s reaction to the current support and resistance levels.
In the short term, traders and investors should closely monitor technical indicators. An expansion in volatility could provide a crucial signal for the next major move.
| Symbol | BTC |
| Coin type | Alt Coin |
| Transaction Speed | Slow |
| Pros |
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| Cons |
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| Further practical applications | |
| Price | $96,478.00 |
| 24h % | 0.24 % |
| 7d % | -0.77 % |
| 30d % | -8.16 % |
| 60d % | -1.49 % |
| 1y % | 89.62 % |
| Market Cap | $1,912,972,090,917.00 |
| Max. Supply | 21,000,000.00 |
| Official Links | Website | Whitepaper | Source Code |
| Socials | Reddit | X | Message Board |
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