Dogecoin Struggles as Bearish Trend Continues
Key Takeaways
- Dogecoin (DOGE) has been in a clear downtrend since January 2025.
- The price is once again approaching the November 2024 low of around $0.14 USD.
- Technical indicators such as MACD and On-Balance Volume (OBV) confirm the negative trend.
- Some large investors (“whales”) are accumulating DOGE – a potential sign of hope.
- Long-term holders are showing signs of uncertainty according to the NUPL indicator.
Memecoins Under Pressure – Dogecoin Is No Exception
Since December 2024, the entire memecoin market has been showing a declining trend. Many tokens have completely lost the price gains they made over the past nine months. Dogecoin, one of the most well-known memecoins, is also affected. Unlike traditional cryptocurrencies, the value of memecoins is heavily driven by hype and community interest – making them more vulnerable to price drops.
Technical Analysis Shows Clear Downtrend
A look at DOGE’s daily chart reveals a series of lower highs and lower lows – a typical pattern for a downtrend. The price is currently near the support zone of $0.14 USD, which was already tested in November 2024. The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) has been indicating sustained selling pressure since February. While the OBV (On-Balance Volume) remains stable, it does not signal any buying momentum.
Fewer Wallets in Profit – Bear Market Confirmed
The “Supply in Profit” metric – the percentage of DOGE currently in profit – has dropped from 99.44% in December to 70.95%. The 90-day MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio is also clearly in negative territory. A value of -38.14% indicates that many investors are currently below their entry price. These figures confirm the bearish sentiment in the market.
Whales Showing Cautious Buying Interest
The distribution of DOGE holdings shows different trends depending on wallet size. Wallets holding between 100,000 and 1 million DOGE have generally been selling in recent months. Smaller wallets, on the other hand, are increasingly buying. Particularly noteworthy: wallets holding 1 to 10 million DOGE have slightly increased their holdings since early March 2025. This could be a sign of cautious accumulation by larger market participants.
Long-Term Holders Showing Signs of Uncertainty
The NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) indicator for long-term holders currently sits at 0.4. This value is interpreted as “Anxiety.” It suggests that many long-term investors are currently uncertain whether their investment will pay off. If this trend continues, a further drop below $0.14 USD in April is possible.
Sideways Summer Phase Possible
A scenario similar to the summer of 2024 cannot be ruled out: back then, the price consolidated for several weeks before a recovery began. A similar phase may also be necessary in 2025 before the bulls regain control. Short-term price gains are currently unlikely.
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Our Assessment
Dogecoin remains a speculative asset that is heavily influenced by market sentiment and large investors. The current downtrend is clearly visible and supported by both fundamental and technical data. The slight accumulation by larger wallets is a weak but noteworthy signal. Long-term investors should remain patient and wait for a period of stabilization. New entries should be carefully considered – especially in an environment without a clear trend reversal.
Sources
- TradingView
- Santiment
- Glassnode
| Symbol | DOGE |
| Coin type | Alt Coin |
| Transaction Speed | Medium |
| Pros |
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| Cons |
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| Further practical applications | |
| Price | $0.16 |
| 24h % | 1.13 % |
| 7d % | -1.16 % |
| 30d % | -6.43 % |
| 60d % | -37.81 % |
| 1y % | 0.43 % |
| Market Cap | $23,570,953,795.00 |
| Official Links | Website | Source Code |
| Socials | Reddit | X |
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