Ethereum (ETH) Poised for Potential Comeback Amid Market Uncertainty
The Key Points at a Glance
After a rejection at 3,700 US dollars and a significant drop in open interest in April, the question arises whether Ethereum (ETH) is ready for a comeback. Despite the price drop, on-chain metrics point to a healthy base that could support a possible trend reversal. Ethereum is currently trading at 3,200 US dollars, having repeatedly broken through the psychologically important level of 3,000 US dollars. The sentiment behind the altcoin king has noticeably weakened, as underscored by the sharp drop in open interest.
Similarities with February 2021
During the bull market in February 2021, the price of Ethereum corrected from a then all-time high (ATH) of 1,900 US dollars to 1,400 US dollars, followed by a V-shaped recovery. This situation shows that the futures market is often overheated, leading to a realignment when spot demand decreases and long positions in the futures market predominate. The drop in open interest from 10 billion to 7.17 billion US dollars in April could represent such a realignment.
User Acceptance and Sentiment
The weighted social sentiment was strongly positive in February and for a few days in mid-March. Since then, however, it has been mostly negative as prices have corrected. The network growth metric has slowed over the past three months, indicating decreasing demand. An increase would be a sign of growing demand, but it is more likely to follow an uptrend than to predict it.
Investment Opportunities
The average coin age metric over 90 days has been steadily increasing since March 27th, indicating network-wide accumulation of ETH. The market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio over 30 days has been negative for almost a month, indicating that holders are suffering losses. This could represent a good buying opportunity, although some uncertainties remain. If ETH can rise above the resistance of 3,300 US dollars, swing traders and investors will be more confident about sustained gains.
Our Assessment
Despite the recent decline and the cooling of market sentiment, on-chain data suggests that Ethereum may be at a turning point. The historical parallels and the current accumulation could be harbingers of an impending recovery. Investors should keep an eye on the mentioned metrics and look for signs of market strengthening to make informed decisions. As always, it is important to conduct your own research and pursue a diversified investment strategy.
Sources: AMBCrypto, Santiment, CryptoQuant
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