Macau gambling rebounds, still 21% below 2019 levels
Key Takeaways
Macau’s gambling industry saw a significant revenue increase in October, reaching 20.8 billion patacas (approximately 2.6 billion USD), the highest level since the easing of COVID-19 restrictions. The “Golden Week” holidays in China were particularly instrumental in driving a surge in visitors. Despite the recovery, revenues remain 21% below the 2019 levels. At the same time, the industry faces new regulatory challenges as Macau introduces measures against illegal currency exchanges and seeks economic diversification.
Strong Recovery Post-Pandemic
In October 2024, Macau experienced a significant rise in gross gaming revenues. According to the “Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau,” revenues climbed to 20.8 billion patacas (about 2.6 billion USD). This represents a 6.6% increase compared to the previous year and marks the highest monthly revenue since the easing of COVID-19 restrictions in early 2023.
A key factor driving this increase was tourism during the “Golden Week” in early October, a major holiday in China. Over 1.1 million people visited Macau during this period, averaging nearly 142,000 visitors daily. These figures even surpassed pre-pandemic visitor numbers, significantly contributing to the region’s economic recovery.
Comparison with Pre-Pandemic Times
Although revenues in October rose by 20% compared to the previous month, they remain 21% below the levels of October 2019. This highlights that while Macau is on the path to recovery, it has not yet reached pre-pandemic levels. Total gross gaming revenues for 2024 so far amount to 190.14 billion patacas, representing a 28% increase over the previous year. However, this still lags behind the 246.74 billion patacas generated during the same period in 2019.
Increased Regulation and New Challenges
While October was a success for Macau’s gambling industry, the sector faces new regulatory hurdles. In the same month, Macau’s legislature passed a law criminalizing the operation of unlicensed currency exchanges near casinos. This measure aligns with China’s efforts to control capital outflow and prevent money laundering. The new regulations could significantly impact activities in and around the casinos.
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In addition to these regulatory changes, Macau saw a leadership change. Former judge Sam Hou Fai was elected as the new Chief Executive. He is known for his support of economic diversification, suggesting that Macau may rely less on the gambling industry in the future. This aligns with Beijing’s focus on “common prosperity” and a broader economic base.
Political Risks for Foreign Operators
Consulting firm Steve Vickers and Associates (SVA) points out that under Macau’s new leadership, the risk for foreign casino operators could increase. Enhanced regulatory oversight and a potential shift in economic policy could have long-term impacts on operators heavily dependent on gambling revenues.
Our Assessment
Macau is showing clear progress on the road to recovery post-pandemic, particularly thanks to strong tourism during the “Golden Week.” However, the industry remains below 2019 levels, and new regulatory challenges could influence future developments. The heightened measures against illegal financial transactions and the potential economic diversification under new leadership could present both opportunities and risks for gambling operators in the long run. It remains to be seen how these changes will impact the industry.
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