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Solana Futures ETF Lags Behind in Trading Volume

Key Takeaways

The recently launched Solana (SOL) Futures ETF has not been able to replicate the success of comparable Bitcoin (BTC) products. According to ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, the trading volume of the SOL ETF is approximately 80 times lower than that of BTC ETFs during their initial phase. Other data also suggests that Solana currently lacks the same market acceptance as Bitcoin or Ethereum. This development could impact the prospects of potential spot-SOL ETFs in the U.S.

Weak Start for Solana Futures ETF

On March 20, 2025, the first Solana Futures ETF by Volatility Shares launched in the U.S. In its first few days, the product reached a trading volume of around USD 1 million. While this is a solid figure for an average ETF, it is significantly weaker compared to Bitcoin Futures ETFs. For comparison: the first Bitcoin Futures ETF ($BITO) generated a trading volume roughly 80 times higher in its early days.

By March 31, the daily trading volume of the SOL ETF had dropped to just USD 48,000. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas commented that interest in ETFs tends to decline the further they move away from Bitcoin.

Market Dominance as a Key Factor

The market shares of cryptocurrencies are also reflected in ETF demand. Bitcoin dominates the crypto market with a 61% share, followed by Ethereum at 8%. Solana ranks fifth with 2.4%, behind Binance Coin (BNB). This distribution significantly influences investor interest in ETF products.

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Since their launch last year, spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. have seen inflows totaling USD 36 billion. The Ethereum ETFs introduced in July 2024 attracted USD 2.4 billion – a 15:1 ratio in favour of BTC.

Solana CME Futures Also Fall Short of Expectations

A similar picture emerges with the futures products of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). On the first trading day, SOL futures reached a volume of USD 12 million. For comparison: Bitcoin futures reached USD 102 million, and Ethereum USD 31 million.

These figures indicate that both institutional and retail investors continue to favour BTC – especially during volatile market phases. During the downturn in Q1 2025, Solana lost approximately 50% of its value compared to Bitcoin.

Technical Development: SOL/BTC Ratio Under Pressure

The ratio of SOL to BTC – an indicator of relative price performance – shows continued weakness. If the current trend continues, the ratio could fall to 0.0012 before a potential recovery begins. Currently, the SOL price stands at USD 128, just above the key support level of USD 120.

Our Assessment

The Solana Futures ETF has not met expectations. The low trading volume and weak performance compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum indicate that SOL currently lacks the confidence of the broader investor base. Its low market dominance and limited institutional interest may also weigh on future spot ETF products. Investors considering crypto ETFs should carefully assess the market position of the underlying coins.

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