Solana Rallies 30% Amid Low Institutional Support
Key Takeaways
Solana (SOL) recently experienced a price increase of around 30% – from USD 95 to approximately USD 125. Despite this recovery, on-chain data and market behaviour suggest that confidence among large investors (so-called “whales”) remains low. Several resistance levels, particularly around USD 140, could slow down the upward movement. At the same time, the risk of a long squeeze – a sudden price drop caused by the liquidation of long positions – is increasing.
Whales Use Price Rallies to Exit
A look at blockchain data reveals that a large investor recently sold 274,188 SOL at an average price of USD 108. The original purchase price was USD 148 – a realised loss of around USD 11 million. Such sales indicate that institutional investors are using current price increases to exit rather than accumulate.
This behaviour argues against a sustainable trend reversal. When experienced market participants sell into rising prices, caution is warranted. For you as a retail investor, this means the market remains fragile.
Resistance Zones Cap the Price
Data from the so-called UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) shows at which price levels Solana coins were last moved. Three price zones stand out:
- Around USD 100
- Between USD 117 and 120
- Around USD 140
The area around USD 140 is particularly critical. Over 27.8 million SOL – about 4.75% of the total supply – are located at this level. Many of these coins were purchased at this price. If the price reaches this level, many investors may break even and decide to sell. This would increase selling pressure and make further upward movement more difficult.
Derivatives Market Shows Risk and Potential
Futures market data also provides important insights. Open interest – the volume of open positions – rose by 13.89% to USD 5.23 billion. This indicates that many traders are betting on rising prices and using leverage.
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But this is exactly where the risk lies: if the price does not continue to rise, mass liquidations could occur. Especially in the range between USD 117 and 120, many traders could lose their positions. This could lead to rapid price declines – a so-called long squeeze.
What Does This Mean for You?
The current recovery in Solana appears to be a short-term reaction to previous losses – not a stable upward trend. As long as the price does not sustainably rise above USD 140, the risk of pullbacks remains high.
If you are considering investing in Solana, you should closely monitor the resistance zones. Most importantly: pay attention to the behaviour of large market participants and developments in the derivatives market. These factors often determine the short-term direction.
Our Assessment
Solana is showing short-term strength, but structural risks remain. Selling pressure from whales, strong resistance zones, and an overheated futures market argue against a stable rally. Anyone looking to enter here should expect increased volatility and choose clear entry points. We only see a sustainable trend reversal if Solana breaks above the USD 140 level with volume and stability. Until then, beware of excessive optimism.
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