Stellar (XLM) Eyes 30% Surge if Resistance Breaks
Key Takeaways
Stellar (XLM) shows signs of a potential 30% price increase based on a falling wedge pattern. The crucial resistance level is at $0.3400. If this level is breached, the price could rise to $0.4450. Otherwise, a decline to $0.2600 is possible. Technical indicators currently suggest a bearish market sentiment, while open interest points to increasing volatility.
Chart Analysis: Resistance and Support
XLM is currently moving within a descending channel. The upper resistance level is at $0.3400. A breakout above this level could trigger an upward movement, pushing the price to $0.4450 – an increase of approximately 30.95%.
On the downside, immediate support is at $0.3047. If XLM falls below this level, the downtrend could intensify, driving the price down to the next significant support at $0.2602.
Bearish Signals Dominate
Technical indicators show a bearish market sentiment. The so-called Death Cross – when the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) falls below the 200-day SMA – signals a lack of buying interest. Additionally, the negative directional movement index (DMI) at 30.91 is significantly higher than the positive DMI (17.85), indicating a continued downward movement.
The average directional index (ADX) stands at 31.00, confirming a strong downtrend. A trend reversal would only be likely if the positive DMI surpasses the negative DMI.
Market Sentiment and Liquidation Trends
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is at 0.21, indicating moderate capital inflows into XLM. However, this is not sufficient to trigger a strong upward movement.
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In the derivatives market, bearish sentiment prevails. Liquidation data shows that short positions worth $30,050 were liquidated, while long positions only reached $18,790. Binance recorded the highest short liquidations at $28,740, suggesting a cautious stance among traders.
Funding Rates and Open Interest
Data from Coinalyze shows a negative aggregated funding rate of -0.0130, indicating that traders are paying to hold short positions. The projected funding rate of -0.0164 suggests that bearish sentiment could persist in the short term unless buyers step in.
Open interest has increased by 1.84% to $145.76 million, while trading volume surged by 67.48% to $238.15 million. These developments indicate growing market activity as traders prepare for XLM’s next move.
Our Assessment
XLM is at a critical juncture. If the resistance at $0.3400 is broken, a rise to $0.4450 could follow. Otherwise, a decline to $0.2600 is possible. The current market sentiment is predominantly bearish, but rising open interest suggests an imminent major price movement. Traders should closely monitor resistance and support levels to make informed decisions.
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