Toncoin at Crucial Level: Breakout or Pullback Ahead?

Key Takeaways
Toncoin (TON) is at a critical juncture. The price action presents mixed signals, while technical indicators suggest a potential upward movement. The resistance at $4 remains a crucial factor. At the same time, a pullback to $3.4–$3.5 could present a buying opportunity.
Market Structure and Resistance Zones
Toncoin’s current price action shows a bearish market structure on the daily chart. However, a sustained rise above $3.95 could signal a trend reversal. The resistance zone at $4 remains critical. If this level is breached, further price increases could follow.
Technical Indicators and Capital Flows
Several technical indicators suggest a potential price rally:
– **Chaikin Money Flow (CMF):** The value is above +0.05, indicating strong capital inflows.
– **On-Balance Volume (OBV):** A significant increase over the past two weeks signals rising buying interest.
– **MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):** Close to crossing the zero line, suggesting positive price momentum.
These factors point to a possible move above $4.
Short-Term Support Zones
On the 4-hour chart, capital inflows appear to be weakening. The CMF has fallen below -0.05, while the OBV trend remains positive. The market structure remains bullish, with the $3.4 level acting as key support. A retest of this zone could trigger a rebound. However, if the price falls below this level, further declines are possible.
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Liquidity Zones and Potential Price Targets
According to liquidation heatmaps, the following price areas are particularly relevant:
– **$3.9–$4:** A critical resistance area with high liquidity.
– **$5.5–$5.9:** Potential price targets if a breakout above $4 occurs.
– **$3.4–$3.5:** A high-liquidity zone that could act as short-term support.
A drop to $3.5 could present a buying opportunity, while a sustained breakout above $4 could open the door for further upside potential.
Our Assessment
Toncoin presents mixed signals. While some indicators suggest an impending price rally, the resistance at $4 remains a crucial hurdle. In the short term, a pullback to $3.4–$3.5 could offer a buying opportunity. Traders should closely monitor liquidity zones and technical indicators to make informed decisions.