Toncoin Surges 72% in March Amid Bitcoin Rally
Key Takeaways
Toncoin (TON), the cryptocurrency associated with the Telegram-linked blockchain project The Open Network, experienced a significant recovery in March. After a 67% price drop since December 2024, the price rebounded by 72%. Nevertheless, over 90% of investors remain in the red. Several factors — such as the integration of Grok AI, new investments from Silicon Valley, and the broader market recovery — contributed to the stabilization. Whether this trend continues will largely depend on the future performance of Bitcoin and macroeconomic conditions.
Strong Recovery After Sharp Decline
Toncoin reached a high of over $7 USD in December 2024. This was followed by a steep decline to $2.30 USD in mid-March 2025 — a loss of around 67%. According to data from IntoTheBlock, all investors were at a loss at that point. The subsequent recovery in March temporarily pushed the price back to $4 USD. About 10% of investors are now back in profit.
Key Drivers Behind the Price Reversal
Several events contributed to the recovery of the TON price:
- Bitcoin Rally: The BTC price rose from $78,000 to $88,000 USD in March. This upswing had a positive effect on the overall crypto market.
- Grok AI Integration: The integration of Grok, an AI system, into the TON ecosystem sparked additional interest.
- Investor Confidence: Telegram founder Pavel Durov announced that The Open Network had secured $400 million USD from venture capital firms in Silicon Valley.
These developments led to increased accumulation: Over 1.1 million TON tokens were withdrawn from exchanges, indicating long-term interest.
Current Price and Technical Outlook
After peaking in March, the price recently dropped to around $3.60 USD — a decline of 10% within 48 hours. The reason was a pullback in Bitcoin following the release of higher inflation figures in the U.S.
TON is currently trading within a price range of $3.50 to $4 USD. This zone corresponds to the levels seen in February 2025. If the market stabilizes, a rise toward $5 USD is possible. This level also aligns with the 200-day moving average (200DMA), a key technical indicator. A sustained breakout above it would be seen as a bullish signal.
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However, if the price falls below $3.50 USD, support zones at $3.00 and $2.50 USD may become relevant.
Macro Factors Remain Crucial
The future development of TON depends heavily on the overall market environment. In particular, Bitcoin’s price movement and macroeconomic data — such as inflation or interest rate policies — will be decisive. Investors should closely monitor these factors to make informed decisions.
Our Assessment
Toncoin showed an impressive recovery in March but remains volatile. The integration of new technologies and the trust of major investors are positive signs for the project. However, short-term setbacks are possible, especially in a weak overall market. Those invested in or considering investing in TON should keep an eye on technical levels like the 200DMA as well as Bitcoin’s performance. A sustained recovery is possible, but not guaranteed.
Sources
- IntoTheBlock
- Telegram (Pavel Durov)
- TradingView
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