Trump leads 2024 race, Bitcoin sentiment bullish
- Donald Trump is leading in the forecasts for the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
- Bitcoin (BTC) could benefit from a Trump victory, as he is considered a pro-Bitcoin candidate.
- BTC options show a strong bullish sentiment, with an increased likelihood of Bitcoin reaching new highs.
Trump as a Possible Catalyst for Bitcoin?
Recent predictions suggest that Donald Trump has a higher chance of winning the upcoming 2024 U.S. presidential election. Various prediction sites and models, including Polymarket and PredictIt, show a probability of over 60% for a Trump victory. This development could positively impact the Bitcoin market, as Trump is seen as a pro-Bitcoin candidate.
Forecasts and Their Impact on Bitcoin
According to analyst Jim Bianco of Bianco Research, several prediction models, including the popular “Silver Bulletin,” have estimated Trump’s chances at over 50%. These optimistic forecasts have already triggered a positive reaction in the Bitcoin market. In recent weeks, the Bitcoin price surged to nearly USD 70,000 as Trump’s chances on Polymarket surpassed the 60% mark.
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Options Market Shows Bullish Sentiment
The Bitcoin options market is also reacting to the potential election outcomes. Last week, options traders priced in a 20% chance that Bitcoin would reach USD 80,000 by the end of November. According to data from Deribit, there are almost twice as many call options (bets on rising prices) as put options (bets on falling prices), indicating strong bullish sentiment.
The put/call ratio (PCR), which measures the ratio of put to call options, stood at 0.55. Values below 1 indicate a dominance of call options, signaling positive market expectations. This optimistic sentiment could be based on the assumption that Trump will win the election.
Positive Outlook for Bitcoin Regardless of Election Outcome
Interestingly, BTC options traders are also confident that Bitcoin could reach new highs regardless of the election outcome. Even Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, has recently adopted an increasingly pro-crypto stance. At the time of publication, the Bitcoin price was USD 67,000, just 9% below its all-time high of USD 73,700.
Our Assessment
The 2024 U.S. presidential election could significantly impact the Bitcoin market, especially if Donald Trump wins. The current market dynamics and the bullish sentiment in the options market suggest that investors are betting on further price increases. However, it remains to be seen how the political landscape will evolve and what long-term effects this will have on the crypto market. It is advisable to closely monitor developments to make informed decisions.
| Symbol | BTC |
| Coin type | Alt Coin |
| Transaction Speed | Slow |
| Pros |
|
| Cons |
|
| Price | $88,101.00 |
| 24h % | -5.07 % |
| 7d % | 17.56 % |
| 30d % | 34.88 % |
| 60d % | 46.22 % |
| 1y % | 140.74 % |
| Market Cap | $1,742,828,678,662.00 |
| Max. Supply | 21,000,000.00 |
| Official Links | Website | Whitepaper | Source Code |
| Socials | Reddit | X | Message Board |
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