Bitcoin Whales Active as Market Consolidates
The Most Important Points at a Glance
The activity of large Bitcoin investors, known as whales, has reached a new high. The Exchange Whale Ratio (EWR), an indicator for large transactions on crypto exchanges, has surpassed the 0.6 mark. Historically, this suggests a potential wave of selling. At the same time, the market remains profitable despite a 20% price decline since the last all-time high.
Rising Whale Activity: A Warning Sign?
The Exchange Whale Ratio measures the share of the ten largest Bitcoin transactions in total exchange deposits. According to data from CryptoQuant, this value has steadily increased in recent months. The surge was particularly noticeable in Q4 2024 and again in March 2025.
Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $106,128 on December 17, 2024. Since then, the price has dropped by about 20% to $84,619 (as of March 23, 2025). The timing overlap between the price decline and EWR peaks suggests that large investors are realizing profits.
Netflows Indicate Bitcoin Redistribution
Another important signal for market movements is the so-called netflow – the difference between Bitcoin deposits and withdrawals on exchanges. Between April and October 2024, outflows dominated, indicating an accumulation phase.
From Q4 2024, the picture changed:
– On November 24, 2024, exchanges recorded a net inflow of +7,033 BTC, as Bitcoin traded near $68,000.
– On December 17, the day of the all-time high, only 1,531 BTC were withdrawn – a relatively low value.
– Since the peak, netflows have shown increased volatility but no clear trend toward massive sell-offs.
The data suggests that whales continue to transfer Bitcoin to exchanges, albeit at a more moderate scale than in previous selling phases.
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Market Remains Profitable Despite Correction
The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator measures unrealized profits in the Bitcoin network. Between August and December 2024, this value rose from 0.442 to 0.627, indicating a phase of high profits.
By March 2025, the NUPL value had fallen to 0.480 – a decline of 23.4%, while the Bitcoin price dropped by 21%. The stronger correction in NUPL suggests that long-term investors and whales have primarily realized profits. Nevertheless, the market remains overall profitable, as the indicator is still above the critical loss zone.
Our Assessment
The current market situation shows a mix of profit-taking and stabilization. The rising whale activity could signal further selling, but the netflows and NUPL indicator suggest that the market has not yet entered a clear downward trend.
Whether Bitcoin continues to rise after this consolidation phase or undergoes a deeper correction depends on the further development of whale activity and overall market sentiment. Investors should closely monitor the movements of large investors to identify possible trends early.
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